We at NerdLeaks are flagging a significant claim about Xbox Game Pass that, if true, would mark a notable turning point for Microsoft's gaming strategy. Per VGC, which cites reporting from Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal, the subscription service is now allegedly at around 30 million subscribers, down from the 34 million figure Microsoft last reported in 2024. Take this with a pinch of salt, but the numbers and context quoted raise some uncomfortable questions for Xbox leadership and its long-term bets.
What Was Reported
According to VGC, both Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal claim that Game Pass has declined by roughly 4 million subscribers since the last official Microsoft update. Those outlets reportedly put current subscribers at around 30 million, below the 34 million Microsoft disclosed in 2024.
Per the same reporting relayed by VGC, court documents from Microsoft's legal fight over the Activision Blizzard acquisition showed Microsoft had expected Game Pass to reach about 77 million subscribers by this point in its long-term plan — a target that now looks far off if the new figures are accurate.
VGC also highlights admissions from Xbox leadership. Asha Sharma, Xbox’s new CEO, allegedly acknowledged that Game Pass “did not grow at the pace we expected” in a note to staff tied to significant layoffs across Microsoft’s gaming division. Sharma is quoted saying: “To grow, we bet on Game Pass, multi-platform, and a broader portfolio of content. While those businesses have created meaningful value, they did not grow at the pace we expected. As that happened, our core business weakened, and we added more teams, more investment, and more time, hoping for a better outcome.”
The Source & Credibility
Who Is Saying What
- VGC is the immediate source relaying claims from Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal.
- Bloomberg is reported to have said Xbox lost “more than $300 million in sales” of Call of Duty last year because players used Game Pass instead.
- Matthew Ball, Xbox’s chief strategy officer, is reported to have said last month that the service lost “millions” of subscribers after a price rise last year, which Microsoft partially reversed in April.
We’re dealing with second-hand reporting here — VGC is summarising claims from other outlets and documents. That doesn’t make the claims false, but it does mean we should treat the numbers as alleged until Microsoft comments directly. The fact that the reporting references court documents and direct quotes from Xbox executives lends weight to the claims, but it also underlines why we advise caution: different metrics, timing, or internal definitions could change the headline figure.
What It Could Mean
If the 30 million subscriber figure is accurate, the knock-on effects could be broad. Microsoft reportedly paid $68.7 billion for Activision Blizzard in 2023 and spent years litigating the future availability of Call of Duty. Yet the reported change in policy — that Call of Duty titles would no longer launch day one into Game Pass — and the reported sales hit tied to day-and-date availability raise thorny questions about the economics of the strategy.
VGC reports that Black Ops 6 was the first to launch day-and-date on Game Pass, and that last year’s Black Ops 7 had launch sales down “more than 60% in some markets.” Bloomberg is reported to have said Xbox sacrificed “more than $300 million in sales” of Call of Duty because of Game Pass play. If these figures are correct, Microsoft’s bet that subscription exposure would pay off more than lost premium sales may need serious re-evaluation.
There are a number of moving parts — price changes (and partial reversals), content windowing, and executive restructuring — that all feed into subscriber numbers. As Matthew Ball reportedly put it, millions of subscribers left after a price rise, a trend Microsoft partly reversed in April.
Why This Matters
This alleged decline, if verified, matters for multiple reasons. First, it would suggest Microsoft’s long-term projections for Game Pass — reportedly aiming at roughly 77 million by now — were overly optimistic. Second, it highlights a tension between subscription reach and premium sales that Microsoft has already openly grappled with. Third, the executive-level admissions and layoffs tied to underperformance suggest this isn’t just a numbers game: it’s reshaping strategy and personnel.
Take this with a pinch of salt — these are alleged figures assembled from reporting and court filings — but if they hold up, they’ll force hard conversations inside Microsoft about the future of Game Pass, content deals like those for Call of Duty, and how to balance subscriber growth with franchise profitability. We’ll be watching closely and will update if we get direct confirmation or new documents to chew on.
